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  • Frank Cervarich

Live 2020 Braindump

Updated: Nov 5, 2020


11/5, 11:53am

A theory of the case: Attack of the Biden Republicans

Welcome everyone to Day 3 of the election! As it stands, it looks like Joe Biden is on course to become the next president, with WI and MI called for him yesterday afternoon. As of right now, NV, AZ, NC, GA, and PA are still up for grabs.


With that said, one of the most surprising results of the election has been the success of Republicans who are not named Donald Trump. The Republicans look like they will retain a narrow majority in the Senate, they have gained seats in the House, and they are decisively winning state houses across the country. On the other hand, Democrats not named Joe Biden have by and large underperformed in this election. What is happening here?


A theory to explain this unusual result could possibly be summarized by this anecdote: There is a lifelong Republican in my life who voted Trump in 2016. Over the last four years, however, this person has been so disgusted with Trump that they held their nose and voted for Biden this year. That said, however, this person still identifies with the Republican party and as a conservative, and voted straight Republican down ballot.


In the "Attack of the Biden Republicans" theory, there are many Republicans who split with Trump but who stayed loyal to the party otherwise.


This would explain why Republicans not named Trump seem to be doing well, and Democrats not named Joe Biden are not doing as well as expected. This would also explain unusual outcomes in states like Michigan, where Biden was declared the winner before Gary Peters, the Democratic incumbent senator, who seems to have won a more narrow victory. It would explain states like North Carolina, where the winner has not been determined but it has been determined that the state house will remain in Republican control.

11/4, 2:58pm

Things you may have missed (cont.)


11/4, 12:06pm

Pennsylvania update

The delay in the announcement of mail-in ballot results in PA is because the law said they couldn't start until today, and the machines at max capacity can only process 32k ballots per hour, assuming they move at 100% efficiency. PA officials have said they will be releasing votes in a "cascade" throughout the day.

11/4, 10:23am

The Way-Too-Early 2022 Senate Battleground Map


As of right now, it looks like the Republicans may hold on to the Senate. That got me thinking, what does 2022 look like? Here is a way-too-early assembly of battleground states for 2022:

  • Alaska - Lisa Murkowski (R) - 44.4% in last race

  • Colorado - Michael Bennet (D) - 50% in last race

  • Florida - Marco Rubio (R) - 52% in last race

  • Indiana - Todd Young (R) - 52.1% in last race

  • Missouri - Roy Blunt (R) - 49.2% in last race

  • Nevada - Catherine Cortez Masto (D) - 47.1% in last race

  • North Carolina - Open seat (vacated by Richard Burr [R])

  • Pennsylvania - Open seat (vacated by Pat Toomey [R])

  • Wisconsin - Ron Johnson (R) - 50.2% in last race

11/4, 10:08am

Swings from the last election


It looks like the Republicans will hold the Senate, but the Democrats have made pretty incredible gains in 2020 from the last elections. From The Economist:

11/4, 9:38am

Republicans are winning battleground state houses


As of right now: FL, GA, IA, NC, OH state houses have been called for the Republicans. Silver lining: AZ, MI, PA, TX, WI still in play for state Democrats. (Source)

11/4, 9:24am

Paths to victory for Trump are dwindling


WSJ has this interesting graphic up this morning:


11/4, 9:21am


Some re-contextualization: If you take the names out (no Trump, no Biden, just generic candidates), it’s kind of remarkable that the incumbent president is having such a hard time winning this election.

11/4, 8:53am

Good news for progressives from last night



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